Start free

Articles · 36 and counting

What the research actually says.

How learning works, the numbers everyone misreads, science, money, thinking traps and personality. Plain English, with an honest line on how much each idea holds up.

Learning

Numbers

3 min read

Base Rate Neglect: Why a Positive Test Often Isn't What It Seems

A test that's 99% accurate says you have a rare disease. Are you 99% likely to have it? Usually far from it. Base rate neglect, explained with whole numbers.

3 min read

The Monty Hall Problem, Explained So It Finally Clicks

Three doors, one prize, and a host who opens an empty door. Why switching wins two times in three, explained four different ways until one of them lands.

3 min read

Correlation vs Causation: How to Tell the Difference, With Examples

Two things rising together doesn't mean one causes the other. The four other explanations to check, real examples, and how researchers actually establish cause.

3 min read

What a p-Value Actually Means (and the Three Ways People Misread It)

A p-value isn't the chance your result is wrong, or the chance it's right. What it really measures, with a coin-flipping example, and why p < 0.05 isn't magic.

3 min read

The Gambler's Fallacy: Is Tails Ever "Due"?

After five heads in a row, tails feels due. It isn't. Why the gambler's fallacy feels right, the Monte Carlo night it cost a fortune, and a coin to flip.

3 min read

The Law of Large Numbers, Explained With Coin Flips

Flip a coin enough times and heads settles near 50%. What the law of large numbers says, what it doesn't, and why casinos and insurers rely on it.

3 min read

The Birthday Paradox: Why 23 People Is Enough

In a room of just 23 people, it's more likely than not that two share a birthday. Why it's true, the maths in plain steps, and a room to check it.

3 min read

Relative vs Absolute Risk: What "50% Higher Risk" Really Means

A headline says a food raises your risk by 50%. Should you worry? Relative versus absolute risk, and the one question to ask of any health scare.

3 min read

Mean vs Median: Which Average Should You Trust?

Why the average salary is higher than what most people earn: the difference between mean and median, when each misleads, and which to use.

3 min read

Simpson's Paradox: Better in Every Group, Worse Overall

How a treatment, hospital or university can look better in every group and worse overall. Simpson's paradox, with real examples and a toy to flip it.

3 min read

Regression to the Mean: Why Extreme Results Don't Last

Why the worst performers improve and the best slip back, with no cause at all. Regression to the mean, and how it fools us about praise, cures and luck.

Science

History

Money

Thinking

Mind and body

Personality science

Relationships

Work

Or try one of the free tests.